Snowfall Shifted to Coast This Season

It's been a weird year in terms of snow in the New York Metropolitan Region. Coastal regions, including Long Island, southern Connecticut, New York City and coastal New Jersey have been hammered with snow. Inland regions, like the Hudson Valley have generally seen less snowfall accumulation. The majority of snow has fallen in two large snow storms, the blizzard that came through late in December and the large storm that passed through just yesterday (more on this storm tomorrow). Both of these storms passed out at sea, and precipitation was heaviest near the coast. This snowfall pattern is atypical. The map below shows the annual mean snowfall over the New York Metro Region.



In general snowfall follows topography -- with higher amounts falling in higher elevations inland, away from the (generally) warmer ocean. New York City averages near 25" a year. Long Island averages between 20" near the south shore and 30" near the north shore. There is a steep gradient in the lower Hudson Valley with locations nearest to Long Island Sound and New York City receiving 30" a snow per year, while locations just inland like Northern Westchester receive upwards of 45" per year on average.

The reason for the gradient as seen above is temperature. Locations nearest to the ocean are usually the warmest, and when the wind blows off the ocean temperatures tend to creep above the freezing mark of 32 F. This season, that has not been the case. Storms have passed further to the south and east allowing nearly all of the region to stay below freezing. Instead this season areas closest to the storm have received the most snowfall -- yielding high snow totals near the ocean. The map below shows the snowfall for the December 18 - 21 Blizzard. As you can see snowfall is maximized near the shoreline, nearest to the storm. Temperature was not an issue in this storm, allowing for high snowfall near the coast.



With more snow in the forecast for early next week, will the interior sections begin to make up their deficiency in snow? Will the heating power of the ocean change the snow to rain along the coast? Or, will this storm follow the track of other systems and dump heavy amounts of snow along coastal locations leaving those snow fans inland wondering where there snow has gone?

Open Space on Long Island

Above: New York's pre-eminent open space, the Fulton Lakes Chain in the Adirondacks.

WSHU had an interesting story about open space on Long Island, and why we should care about it:

http://www.wshu.org/news/story.php?ID=6692

The report mentions that Suffolk County is buying up farm land to preserve as open space. More such open space would have been persevered if the Open Space proposal hadn't been defeated by voters this past fall.

Snow, snow go away?

Total snowfall from 8pm March 2nd to 8pm March 3rd. Image from /www.nohrsc.nws.gov/.

Is Suffolk County one major snow storm away from being in serious budget trouble? Since January 1st, Suffolk County has received 25.7” of snow (12” of which fell in one day in early March). This amount is slightly above average for the region, but is not an unprecedented quantity. As the New York Times reports, despite only receiving moderately more snow than a typical season, towns across the county are reeling from the costs of snow removal on town roads and county highways.

In Suffolk County, which was hit hardest by the storm, officials said $2.2 million of their $3 million annual snow budget had now been spent. “We’ve used it on other snowstorms we’ve had, but this one will take the lion’s share,” Mr. Levy said.

A large storm like this one can be worrisome because in most places the snow budget has to last all year — that means not just March, but also November and December.

The timing of snowfall is partly to blame for the high expenses associated with this year’s snow removal, snow storms that hit late at night or on weekends result in increased labor costs due to overtime pay.

Before the storm, Hempstead had already exceeded its annual snow-removal budget of $1.75 million for this year, spending $3.3 million.

Mike Deery, a town spokesman, said this was the first time in five years that Hempstead had exceeded its snow budget. He attributed the spending to the rising cost of salt and the cost of employee overtime when a weekend storm hit earlier this year. Money for snow removal will come from other areas, he said.

It’s hard to imagine blowing a budget by that amount in a winter season, which has been snowier than average but not harsh by any stretches. What would have happened had we had a truly heavy snowfall, say approaching 40” as we did for a number of seasons at the beginning of the 2000’s? Some of the costs no doubt lie in inappropriate use of salt. Is salt needed during snow events or should it be saved for ice storms? Other costs may be inappropriate deployment of labor, perhaps to much effort was paid during some of the smaller snow storms earlier in the season?

All of this leads one to wonder, would more accurate seasonal weather forecasts save towns and counties money? If a prediction could made when budgets were being crafted as to the projected seasonal snowfall, towns and counties would not need to borrow funds to pay snow removal costs. Additionally the National Weather Service has missed a few snow forecasts this season, over predicting snowfall*. No doubt highway superintendents heeding the advice of the meteorologists, and over deploying precious resources for busted snowstorms. This is an interesting example of the value of accurate weather and climate predictions.

* - Interestingly the National Weather Service has been changing the official snow totals at Islip and JFK airports this season, increasing the snow totals, despite the presence of trained weather observers making hourly measurements. Perhaps they are doing this to make their missed forecasts seem less bad?

A Golden Opportunity for Conservation on the East End

If you’ve ever taken the picturesque ferry across Long Island Sound from New London, CT to Orient Point, NY then you’ve seen Plum Island up close. Plum Island sits only a mile or so to the north and east of Orient Point, which is the easternmost point on Long Island’s North Fork. Chances are however that you’ve never been to Plum Island as the island has been closed off to the public since before World War II.


Plum Island, its location highlighted with a red square, sits between Orient Point and Fishers Island at the eastern terminus of Long Island Sound. It is currently home to the Department of Homeland Security’s Plum Island Animal Disease Laboratory, but is set to be decommissioned starting in 2014.

Perhaps that will change in the next decade or so, as the island’s current occupants are set to move out. Since the end of World War II the island has been home to the United States Animal Disease Laboratory, run by the Agriculture Department until its transfer to the Department of Homeland Security in 2003. Now however DHS has plans to replace the Plum Island facility with a larger, state of the art facility in Kansas.


Above is a view of Plum Island, courtesy of the US Department of Agriculture’s website.

While state and federal politicians are campaigning to keep Plum Island functioning as a animal disease research laboratory even after the new laboratory in Kansas opens, it’s worth considering what to do the island in the case that is decommissioned.

According to the Times article, local residents are already salivating at the prospect of turning the island into another suite of expensive homes, in the traditional Hampton’s style.

Enzo Morabito, the director of real estate development for Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate in Bridgehampton, which deals exclusively in luxury property, said a two-acre lot of bare waterfront property on the south side of Plum Island would likely go for about $2 million.

He also said the entire island would be suitable for a golf course and luxury homes.

“That’s what I would do with it,” Mr. Morabito said. “That’s the highest and best use.”

With all due respect to Mr. Morabito, perhaps there is a more egalitarian approach to the land that could be taken. Why not consider opening the island up as a national or state park? The island fits the criteria that many set for designation as national park, it is both strikingly beautiful terrain and also of a historic value.

It is thought that Plum Island is the location of the first confrontation between British soldiers and members of the Continental Army during the Revolutionary War. The British Army and Navy had taken to raiding coastal Long Island for provisions and supplies at the onset of the conflict. So it is told, the first organized confrontation between the two armies occurred as American soldiers attempted to evacuate livestock from Plum Island to more secure locations on the mainland.

Additionally, Plum Island is a green haven in an increasingly developed region. Fishers Island to the northeast is an island which has been developed extensively for residential use. Plum Island could be developed only modestly, and still provide the infrastructure necessary for an exceptional national park.

As Long Island steadily looses its remaining open space to sub-division after sub-division, turning Plum Island into a national park represents a tangible opportunity to protect the environment, increase parkland and preserve local heritage.

New wind energy plan for Long Island

Sorry about the lack of posts last week. I am working on my PhD proposal presently, and I find it hard to do a lot of writing in one day and work on multiple writing projects at the same time.
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Another plan is in the works to place wind turbines off the south shore of Long Island, according to this blurb from News 12 Long Island.

Putting windmills in the Atlantic Ocean to generate power for Long Island is back on the drawing board at LIPA, the power authority says. After a failed try for a wind farm off Jones Beach, the company is now trying for Queens.

LIPA CEO Kevin Law told the power authority’s board Tuesday morning that he has been talking with Con Edison about the idea. Law says the aim is to reduce Long Island’s reliance on oil from the Middle East.

”We agreed that perhaps it would make sense, where we could share the cost and share the power,” Law says.

A proposed wind farm off Jones Beach was canceled last year because of concerns it was too expensive. The new proposal would include more windmills than the Jones Beach project and would be located further out -- about 10 miles from the Rockaways.
LIPA says the technology has improved since the Jones Beach plan was considered.

LIPA and Con Edison are working on determining the cost of the project and if the wind farm would end up saving Long Islanders money in the long run. If they determine the plan does not make economic sense, it will not be pushed forward.

Previous attempts to harvest the large quantities of wind power available off the south shore of Long Island failed primarily for two reasons; first the project would cost so much that the energy harvested would be prohibitively expensive and secondly the project was near to a scenic region off of Jones Beach that residents were concerned would be obscured by the project.

The new project is expected to be larger in scope than the previously proposed project, so the hope is that construction expenses per unit energy produced will be lower, thus the energy will be more reasonably priced. The news blurb vaguely makes reference to “new technology” that would cost less to install or run. Compared to a few years ago, fossil fuel based electricity is more expensive, so this project may make a bit more economic sense.

As per the visual impact of the project, it should be similar, as both projects were expected to be 10 miles off the coast. There may be a difference in public perspective however between “off of Jones Beach” and “off of Queens.” People may have been protective (overly so?) of their parkland view.

A very unscientific poll by News 12 Long Island found 87% (521 self selected respondents) of people who self-surveyed themselves were in favor of building the wind turbines off the coast of Queens, and only 13% (72 self selected respondents) were opposed. This ratio is likely to change when the costs of the projects are announced.

So it seems that the public is now strongly in support of the initiative, whereas only a few years ago they were skeptical of a similar project. It is unclear if this is due to a shift in public opinions of alternative energy sources, or if it is a result of the project being moved away from Jones Beach. What do you think?

Red Lionfish Invasion!

It’s raining so hard here at blogcentral, that the roof is leaking. While a few drops of water may not mean a lot to most, when you are working in a room with machines using tens of thousands of volts of electricity, this becomes a real threat. Thus, this first post may be our last.

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I read an interesting article by Daniel McFadden of the Associated Press earlier this week about invasive species in the Gulf of Mexico. I think invasive species is an extremely ambiguous term that no doubt is confusing to many, and it’s worth clarifying our terminology before moving onward.

An invasive species, is by most definitions, a species that is not native to its current habitat that is some how harmful to the habitat it has come to reside in. By not native we mean that it is not traditionally found in its new ecosystem, and has by some manner only recently arrived. Today when we talk about invasive species we most often mean introduced species, and that is to say species that we as humans moved into their new habitats.

There are a number of invasive species that are likely familiar to Americans including zebra muscles in the Great Lakes, “flying” carp in the Misssissippi River and Kudzu in the Southeastern United States. The focus of the quoted article, the red lionfish, is looking likely to become a prime example of invasive species in a major vacation hotspot, the Caribbean.

Introduction of new marine species by humans can be done in a number of ways, most often by maritime vessels releasing ballast water. Ballast water in water that ships take in at one location to stabilize the vessel, and often release it far away areas where they are docking. This ballast water often contains fish and other aquatic animals larvae and eggs that may not be native to a region.

Other major methods of introduction of invasive species include accidental transport on ships and airplanes, and intentional transport of species for domestication or for pleasure viewing (e.g. zoos and aquariums).

Today’s example of an invasive species was transported by way of pleasure viewing.

“The red lionfish, a tropical native of the Indian and Pacific oceans that probably escaped from a Florida fish tank, is showing up everywhere - from the coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola to Little Cayman's pristine Bloody Bay Wall, one of the region's prime destinations for divers.”

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”Researchers believe lionfish were introduced into the Atlantic in 1992, when Hurricane Andrew shattered a private aquarium and six of them spilled into Miami's Biscayne Bay, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”

Yikes!

The lionfish in coral reef ecosystems represents a perfect storm. The lionfish is an aggressive animal that is able to out-compete native species. The lionfish is a voracious consumer of native species. And lastly, the lionfish has been introduced to an ecosystem that already under a great deal of stress.

Lionfish are likely to get a lot of attention in the upcoming years because they are both visible to tourists and somewhat hazardous to swimmers. But the real threat they pose is in terms of damage to the already fragile ecosystem they are invading.

“Wherever it appears, the adaptable predator corners fish and crustaceans up to half its size with its billowy fins and sucks them down in one violent gulp.
Research teams observed one lionfish eating 20 small fish in less than 30 minutes.
This may very well become the most devastating marine invasion in history," said Mark Hixon, an Oregon State University marine ecology expert who compared lionfish to a plague of locusts. "There is probably no way to stop the invasion completely."

In addition to its voracious appetite, the fish has shown a surprisingly large range for a tropical fish, being spotted as far north as Rhode Island. According to my diving buddies, they have been seen in the waters of the south shore of Long Island as well.

The red lionfish represents a real challenge to marine planners trying to manage the delicate coral reefs. The effects of this species will be felt over a large latitude range from the Caribbean all the way into the Northeastern United States. Of course, this is only one of the many many species we have introduced and are in some way responsible for.